We have recorded every tracked venue every 30 minutes since January. That is 58,596 readings across 171 days — long enough to stop guessing about whether this indicator does anything, and start checking. This page is the answer, including the parts that are unflattering.
Every venue, every 30 minutes, since 5 January.
Continuous, apart from gaps where no venue reported.
Departures far enough above normal for the hour to register.
Episodes falling between 10:00 and 15:00 Eastern.
If this index were detecting unusual work at the Pentagon, its alerts would cluster at odd hours. They cluster at noon.
Episodes by Eastern hour. The tallest bar is midday.
Each one is a moment the composite ran far enough above what is normal for that weekday and half-hour to be worth flagging. We have deliberately not paired these with news events. The honest position is that we recorded activity, not causes — and inviting readers to match dates to headlines after the fact is exactly how this theory gets oversold.
| Date | Time (ET) | Most likely | Peak | Normal | Above normal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 Sat | 10:30 | Lunch | 98 | 40.5 | 4.1σ |
| January 9, 2026 Fri | 01:30 | Late night | 94 | 41 | 4.0σ |
| May 3, 2026 Sun | 13:00 | Lunch | 81 | 30.7 | 3.9σ |
| January 17, 2026 Sat | 01:00 | Late night | 79 | 41.9 | 3.7σ |
| February 13, 2026 Fri | 12:00 | Lunch | 77 | 31 | 3.4σ |
| February 9, 2026 Mon | 12:00–13:30 | Lunch | 98 | 31 | 3.4σ |
| April 23, 2026 Thu | 11:00–12:00 | Lunch | 92 | 33.4 | 3.4σ |
| March 20, 2026 Fri | 00:00–01:00 | Late night | 87 | 42.6 | 3.2σ |
| March 25, 2026 Wed | 10:00–11:00 | Lunch | 74 | 36 | 3.1σ |
| March 2, 2026 Mon | 12:00 | Lunch | 71 | 31 | 3.0σ |
| April 30, 2026 Thu | 12:00 | Lunch | 71 | 31 | 3.0σ |
| June 19, 2026 Fri | 22:00 | Late night | 94 | 46.1 | 3.0σ |
| July 23, 2026 Thu | 11:00 | Lunch | 67 | 33.4 | 3.0σ |
| April 9, 2026 Thu | 15:00 | Other | 100 | 41.5 | 2.9σ |
| March 21, 2026 Sat | 14:00 | Lunch | 83 | 32.1 | 2.9σ |
| April 3, 2026 Fri | 00:00 | Late night | 82 | 42.6 | 2.9σ |
| February 20, 2026 Fri | 01:30 | Late night | 78 | 41 | 2.8σ |
| March 11, 2026 Wed | 10:30 | Lunch | 73 | 34 | 2.8σ |
| February 8, 2026 Sun | 13:00 | Lunch | 68 | 30.7 | 2.8σ |
| April 8, 2026 Wed | 12:00 | Lunch | 68 | 31 | 2.8σ |
| January 19, 2026 Mon | 12:00 | Lunch | 68 | 31 | 2.8σ |
| February 11, 2026 Wed | 23:00 | Late night | 98 | 47.3 | 2.8σ |
| February 2, 2026 Mon | 12:00 | Lunch | 67 | 31 | 2.7σ |
| April 29, 2026 Wed | 12:00 | Lunch | 67 | 31 | 2.7σ |
| February 7, 2026 Sat | 13:00 | Lunch | 66 | 30.7 | 2.7σ |
| July 8, 2026 Wed | 10:00–11:00 | Lunch | 69 | 36 | 2.7σ |
| April 7, 2026 Tue | 16:00 | Other | 87 | 41.1 | 2.7σ |
| April 23, 2026 Thu | 12:30 | Lunch | 87 | 40.3 | 2.7σ |
| February 2, 2026 Mon | 13:00 | Lunch | 77 | 34.4 | 2.6σ |
| January 10, 2026 Sat | 14:00 | Lunch | 79 | 32.1 | 2.6σ |
| January 31, 2026 Sat | 23:00 | Late night | 85 | 49.2 | 2.6σ |
| July 24, 2026 Fri | 15:00 | Other | 94 | 41.5 | 2.6σ |
| February 21, 2026 Sat | 18:00 | Dinner | 86 | 41.9 | 2.6σ |
| February 11, 2026 Wed | 00:00 | Late night | 78 | 42.6 | 2.5σ |
| March 24, 2026 Tue | 13:00 | Lunch | 75 | 34.4 | 2.5σ |
| July 16, 2026 Thu | 12:30 | Lunch | 84 | 40.3 | 2.5σ |
| May 4, 2026 Mon | 12:30–13:30 | Lunch | 84 | 40.3 | 2.5σ |
An earlier version of this analysis found 58 episodes rather than 44. Twenty-two of them were an artifact of our own scoring: when fewer than three venues are reporting, the index is capped at 49 rather than allowed to claim anything from a tiny sample. Overnight that is most rounds — so the baseline for midnight to 2am became a stack of synthetic 49s, and any night three venues did report scored as a dramatic anomaly against it. Thirteen of those false episodes were Fridays.
Those 456 capped rounds are now excluded from the baselines entirely. We are documenting it because a tracker that only publishes its hits is not measuring anything — it is marketing.
On this evidence, no — not as an indicator of anything happening inside the Pentagon. Across 171 days, 68% of everything it flagged happened between 10am and 3pm, and the single largest departure in seven months was the Fourth of July. The rest are Friday nights and busy weekday lunches.
That is not a reason to stop measuring it. It is a reason to be accurate about what is being measured: restaurants near the Pentagon get busy at mealtimes, and this is what that looks like at 30-minute resolution over seven months. If the pattern ever genuinely breaks, this archive is what would let anyone tell.
Everything here is recomputed from raw readings with the current formula, so the whole record uses one definition rather than whatever the scoring happened to be at the time. The full methodology is here.
One notification per change. No account, no tracking.